Whenever you bet on a single football match, you have it pretty easy – if you are familiar with football, that is. You take a look at the two teams’ records and the news, and you can already form a pretty accurate prediction. For the EPL betting odds, you have it easy – the Premier League has pretty accurate records of its teams, including overviews of the seasons that go back two decades.
“Pretty accurate”, in turn, doesn’t mean “precise”. There are always things that can bend the odds one way or another that you need to keep in mind before placing your bet.
Home or away
Each football club has a home stadium where it trains, with the grandstands usually filled with its own fan base. While you may not realize how important the latter is, just take a look at what players are saying about playing without a crowd: they felt out of place and it took a while for them to get up to speed in front of the empty chairs.
In most cases, football teams perform best when they play at their home stadium, in front of their own fans. Of course, there are exceptions – a look at the teams’ recent matches will help you get the idea.
What will the weather be like when the match is played? Will it be sunny or rainy? Will it be hot and humid or cold and dry? Will it be in the morning or at night? Does the team you plan to bet on accustomed to playing under these weather conditions?
All these factors can have a serious impact on the performance of one team or another, influencing the odds of either of the outcomes you can bet on.
Injuries and suspensions
When a player is injured, he’s usually pulled out of the rotation for a while for recovery. Sometimes, players get injured but don’t sit out their recovery, choosing to continue playing. Either way, the injury negatively affects the performance of the entire team and bends the odds in the opponents’ favour. It’s the same when a player is suspended: they will be away from the turf for a time (usually a number of matches), and their absence is felt.
When a team gets a new manager, their performance will not change overnight. First, the team and the manager have to familiarize themselves with each other, and this can take some time. Sometimes, the new manager comes with his own vision and strategy, often fundamental changes in player positions and formations as a whole. A new manager can sometimes mean a temporary dip in the teams’ performance and this can have a fundamental impact on the odds of them winning.
Finally, here is one thing that shouldn’t be ignored: the unexpected. This is something not even the most experienced oddsmakers can predict. The number of unpredictable things that can affect the outcome of a football match – perhaps lead to its suspension – is almost unlimited. Just think of Christian Eriksen, the Danish footballer who collapsed during a EURO 2020 game or how the health authorities suspended a match just a few days ago because they wanted to quarantine several players.