On Sunday, March 16, Newcastle United ended their 70-year wait for a domestic trophy, beating the much-favoured Premier League-leading Liverpool in front of 88,513 fans at Wembley Stadium.
Hailed as one of the best signings of the summer window in the eyes of former Manchester City defender Micah Richards, Federico Chiesa – who cost a mere £10 million with £2.5 million in add-ons – came on with 16 minutes left of regular time and slotted away a cool Harvey Elliott through ball to make it 1-2 in the 94th minute.
They have now left the door ajar for as many as 11 teams from the English top flight to play in Europe next season.
Race for Europe Gets a Bit More Open
It was 1955 that Newcastle last hoisted an English trophy, and with their Carabao Cup win, they’re now riding a wave of momentum that could also surge them into the Champions League in 2025/26. For now, with the League Cup triumph, they’ve secured a playoff spot in the Europa Conference League.
With Newcastle United getting that spot, but likely set to secure a Champions League or Europa League spot through league position, their Europe Conference spot moves down a place. However, given the progress and potential for success of other Premier League clubs in the three European competitions, more places could move down.
Not only do clubs secure places in Europe by league rankings, but they can also earn the league more performances in Europe. This is decided on UEFA’s points system, with progress in each of the three competitions earning points for the country. Given how many teams are left, it’s very likely that England will get a fifth UCL spot.
As of March 17, the top six Premier League betting odds see these places as being secured by Liverpool and Arsenal while Manchester City (-1200), Nottingham Forest (-1000), Chelsea (-800), and Newcastle United (-275) are all in with a shot. Brighton and Bournemouth are at +175 and +350 to break into this elite group of teams.
So, top five likely gets a Champions League spot. After that, Brighton & Hove Albion can secure sixth for a Europa League spot, and a team beyond these top teams winning the FA Cup would secure another team’s place in the Europa League. Then, it’ll come down to some very impressive displays in Europe.
Competing on the Continent for More Places
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Starting with the gem of European football, Arsenal and Aston Villa found themselves on the same side of the bracket. Real Madrid, whose lucky break in the Atlético Madrid shootout got them to the Quarter-Finals, face Arsenal, and then the winners of that tie go on to face Villa or Paris Saint-Germain.
To unlock more European places, Aston Villa would need to win the Champions League. So, it’s a long shot, to say the least. In the Europa League, there’s a better shot at unlocking another spot. Sitting 13th and 14th as of March 17, both Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United see the Europa League as their last shot at success in 2024/25.
The Red Devils have suffered another season of turmoil under terrible club management. Manchester United sacked Erik ten Hag back on October 28, but seem committed to giving Ruben Amorim more time and possibly the players that’d be useful for his way of playing over the coming windows. Spurs have been blighted by injuries.
Still, the two clubs are well-positioned for a run at the Europa League crown. Given the competition remaining, it’s quite possible that it’ll be an all-English final. If the winning team also secures tenth in the Premier League, it’ll unlock another orderly spot for the table. Even without league placing, another spot would be given out.
In the third tier of continental competition, the Europa Conference League, it’s all down to Chelsea. The West London side look primed for even more frantic action in the upcoming transfer window, but for now, they’re jostling for a top-four spot and, based on the money spent on their massive squad, are the clear favorites for the Europa Conference crown.
With another underdog claiming the other major domestic cup and some unexpected success in the rest of UEFA’s competitions, the Premier League might just see 11 teams go to Europe in 2025/26. It’s a long shot, but perhaps not as much of a long shot as anyone would expect.
