Is Ukraine’s Independence at Risk? A leaked forecast from Moscow hints at dramatic global shifts—including the end of Ukraine as an independent state. Is this Russia’s message to the next U.S. administration? Let’s dive into the details.
According to Kyiv Post’s intelligence sources, The Russian Defense Ministry has prepared a forecast of the global military-political situation up to 2045, including a strategy to end Ukraine as an independent state.
Moscow is apparently planning to communicate this plan to the new U.S. administration through foreign governments and representatives.
As reported by Interfax-Ukraine, the document proposes dividing Ukraine into three parts, which are:
- Fully and partially occupied regions of Ukraine, which Moscow seeks to annex as part of Russia officially.
- The territory around Kyiv is referred to by Moscow as a “pro-Russian state entity.
- Western regions of Ukraine, referred to as “disputed territories”, with their fate to be determined in negotiations involving Russia, Poland, Hungary, and Romania.
In addition, the Ukraine Intelligence also obtained a document stating four potential scenarios for the development of wider international processes, two of which Russia considers most favourable:
- Formation of a multipolar world, where major powers divide spheres of influence
- Regionalization or chaos which implies a weakening of the global order.
- Dominance of the United States and the West.
- China emerging as the leading global power.
In the first two scenarios, the Kremlin anticipates success in the battle with Ukraine, resulting in favourable changes in global politics. Russia considers the second and third options unfavourable. These could become a reality if Moscow loses the war or the conflict is frozen.
With Donald Trump recently re-elected, promising to end the war quickly, the Kremlin may be calculating how his policies could align with its goals. However, he has yet to present concrete plans, instead relying on assumptions and pronouncements from his entourage, many of which Ukraine sees negatively.
This leaked forecast highlights the Kremlin’s ambitious vision of reshaping the geopolitical map and Ukraine’s future. As international powers weigh their strategies, the stakes for Ukraine, Europe, and the global order have never been higher.
