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Seth WalderESPN Analytics
It’s a quantifiable edge in the game that no team exploits more often than the Ravens.
“What a good job they do of creating conflict right before the snap, changing your fits,” Rams coach Sean McVay said in his post-game press conference after the 45-6 blowout, referring to Baltimore’s pre-snap motion that altered defenders’ run responsibilities.
This season, for the first time, ESPN Stats & Information is tracking pre-snap motion on every play in every NFL game and whether the player in motion came set at the snap or remained in motion. Of the 21,928 offensive plays run this season (excluding spikes and kneels), 11% of them included motion at the snap.
The Ravens have taken it to another level, though, and it’s fueling their success. They have had a man in motion at the snap on 34% of their offensive plays this season, by far the most in the league. On Monday night, it was a whopping 47%. And it’s working. Here’s why the rest of the NFL should follow Baltimore’s lead.
Latest Sports News: How effective is pre-snap motion?
Let’s start by laying out exactly what we’re talking about with pre-snap motion. From the NFL’s rulebook, “When the ball is snapped, one player who is lined up in the backfield may be in motion, provided that he is moving parallel to or away from the line of scrimmage. No player is permitted to be moving toward the line of scrimmage when the ball is snapped. All other players must be stationary in their positions.”
ESPN counts motion as a player running or jogging to a new spot (so running backs that just slide a step or a tight end who backs up off the line of scrimmage do not count). If a motion man gets to his new spot and faces upfield before the snap, that is considered “set” even if he isn’t completely still.
But motion men still moving parallel to the line of scrimmage at the time of the snap is what the Ravens do more than anyone else and what we’re focusing on today. It’s also where offensive value is added.
- Across the league, pass plays — including sacks and scrambles — with a man in motion at the snap have earned 0.08 expected points added per play (EPA/P) more than when there is no pre-snap motion. That’s roughly the equivalent of the difference between the Chiefs’ offense and the Raiders’ offense this season. However, plays in which a player was put in motion but then was set before the snap showed only a minimal advantage over non-motion plays.
- On designed-run plays, the edge was even stronger, with a 0.11 EPA/P difference in favor of motion at the snap over plays where there was no motion. And again, the edge for designed run plays in which a player was put in motion but came set before the snap was minimal.
On a per-play basis, the Ravens’ gains on motion at the snap relative to plays where every player is set (non-motion and motion to set) slightly outpace the league average. It is worth noting, however, that Baltimore’s rush plays with motion at the snap only maintain their (absurdly high) level of production compared with only non-motion plays.
The 49ers, who the Ravens face this weekend, put a man in motion at the snap at the fourth-highest rate in the league. San Francisco, however, has only produced similar results when rushing with a man in motion at the snap relative to when it does not, and it actually has been worse passing the ball.
So why is it so effective?
“[Defensive backs] are responsible for gaps or contain in the run game as well, and that motion can get them [out of the] correct gap,” ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky told me, reinforcing McVay’s comment on the effectiveness of pre-snap motion. Analyst Matt Bowen added, “With pre-snap motion or movement vs. man-coverage defenses, defensive backs have to process with speed to communicate vs. bunch or stack sets, realign to avoid pick/rub concepts and avoid busting calls in the secondary.”
The data also backs up what Bowen mentioned: Motion at the snap is a greater offensive advantage on pass plays against man coverage than against zone. Against man coverage, the EPA/P advantage for motion over either no motion or motion and set has been 0.12 — we’re talking the difference between the Chiefs’ offense and the Bucs’ now — while against zone it has been just 0.04.
Through some more sophisticated approaches (read below for those), we found that the advantage provided by motion at the snap is slightly smaller than the basic observations above. But critically, those approaches also confirmed our beliefs and allow us to confidently conclude that motion at the snap appears to provide a distinct benefit for offenses, beyond just the fact that the Rave