Chelsea sit fifth in the standings as the Premier League heads into Matchday 6. They have scored more goals than any other team save Manchester City and kept a clean sheet in their last two matches.
Chelsea beat League Two Barrow 5-0 in midweek, but now Enzo Maresca’s team has to focus on a far more formidable opponent: Brighton. Under new manager Fabian Hurzeler, Brighton has been doing fine, but it might cause damage to the Blues if the West London team is not on their game.
The fans and neutral watchers will love this, but from a Chelsea perspective, here are three things to look out for:
Shooting and Defending – Conceding
Chelsea has been abysmal in defence this season, given that they concede too many shots and goals.
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Enzo Maresca’s side has let in 34 shots in the last two games, 14 of which were on target. That means the Blues aren’t stopping opponents enough from gaining possession of the ball.
With a penalty save, the in-form Robert Sanchez single-handedly kept Chelsea’s clean sheet against Bournemouth. He continued to block all seven shots against West Ham, though none were considered a good opportunity.
Although Chelsea has kept two clean sheets in their last five games, its xG against number — 5.8 — shots allowed — 65 — and shots on target against — twelve — are all above average. This is impressive, considering the Blues have played West Ham United, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Manchester City, and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Since only Man City can be said to have a potent offence of the mentioned teams here, Chelsea should come higher in the above criteria.
Bournemouth is fifth in the league in shots on target but 13th in goals scored. They do top the league, though, in shots taken. The Cherries were granted another penalty against Chelsea, which Evanilson failed to capitalize on.
So, Brighton is a much more dangerous attacking side, excluding Man City, than any of Chelsea’s opponents. Hurzeler’s team comes third in average possession – 62%, sixth in goals, and fifth in shots. Therefore, Chelsea’s defence will face more serious problems throughout this game.
Shot Creation
As everyone knows, Chelsea is second in the league in goals scored, but there have been some offensive lapses. Of the top six scoring teams in the league thus far, the Blues have taken the fewest shots-59. The only other side that can compete with Maresca’s team in that area is Unai Emery’s Aston Villa, with 62 shots and eight goals.
Chelsea have 11 goals from 59 shots, yet they are only 13th in the league for shots taken, and 7th for shots on goal. That equates to a shot conversion percentage of 19%. The next six highest-scoring teams have converted at rates of 16% for Arsenal, 16% for Villa, 13% for Manchester City, 12% for Liverpool, 10% for Brighton, and finally, 9% – Tottenham Hotspur.
A high volume of shots with a 14–15% shot conversion is far more sustainable at the team level than a relatively modest volume of shots with a 19% conversion rate. In fact, no club has made more than 14% of its shots over the past five seasons. Chelsea must thus more than double the number of shots it attempts every game or set a league-first mark by converting over 16% of its shots.
Brighton’s defense has especially been leaky; the Seagulls rank eighth in terms of xG against (5.9), despite ranking third in shots allowed and second in shots on target permitted.
Kaoru Mitoma vs Malo Gusto (or the right-back player of choice)
Mitoma has been instrumental in Brighton’s attack and has caused headaches for many fullbacks this season. Malo Gusto should return to the starting lineup against Brighton after his layoff due to injury. This result seals Chelsea’s ability to hold Hurzeler’s team. There will be no room for errors, and Gusto needs to be at the best level to prevent the Japan international from getting the better of him.
Mitoma does boast a 50% success rate and an impressive 2.4 completed dribbles per game. Both Gusto and Mitoma can boast a victory percentage of 48% in the ground duel. Each will be intent on coming out on top.
