The deal binds Washington to providing Kyiv with sustained support; yet, if Trump is reelected, he may renounce it. In contrast to NATO, if Ukraine is invaded, no US military action is necessary.
National security advisor Jake Sullivan said that President Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky want to sign a 10-year security agreement on Thursday that will bind Washington to providing Kyiv with a variety of military support in an effort to support Ukraine’s conflict with Russia.
According to authorities, the agreement seeks to bind future American governments to support Ukraine, even in the event that former president Donald Trump wins the election in November. It will serve as a framework for an extended American effort to assist in the modernization of Ukraine’s armed forces, which are in dire need of new weapons despite having pioneered drone warfare and other cutting-edge tactics in their conflict with Russia.
Although officials expressed confidence that the pact would transcend partisan differences inside the US, they also emphasized that since it is not a treaty and will not be ratified by Congress, Trump or any other president may choose to back out of the legally binding executive accord. It also makes no fresh promises on Ukraine’s long-term chances of joining the NATO security alliance.
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As the president took off on Air Force One to attend a summit of the Group of Seven leaders in the southern Puglia region of Italy, Sullivan said to reporters, “We want to demonstrate that the U.S. supports the people of Ukraine, that we stand with them, and that we’ll continue to help address their security needs not just tomorrow but out into the future.”
According to Sullivan, Washington will bolster Ukraine’s “credible defense and deterrence capability.” “[Russian President Vladimir Putin is mistaken if he believes he can outlast the coalition backing Ukraine.”
It’s unclear what will happen to the pact going forward, with Trump topping Biden in most electoral polls. Trump has occasionally shown doubt about Ukraine’s ability to fight back, claiming once that he could put an end to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in a day, and he has advocated for Europe to shoulder a larger portion of the cost of assisting Kyiv. However, Obama finally gave his approval for the assistance package for Ukraine to be passed by Congress this spring.
The Biden administration was among the most hesitant to provide Ukraine a quick route to alliance membership, but months of discussions that began in August of last year—the month after a NATO summit—have resulted in an agreement. As a substitute, officials suggested a number of bilateral security agreements as a means of establishing an alternative, legally-binding, extended period of assistance for Kyiv.
Shortly after the negotiations began, however, the billions of dollars that the US provides Ukraine with in short-term military aid became mired in congressional red tape. Skeptic House Republicans refused to approve fresh funding until April, a seven-month period that effectively halted talks on a 10-year deal. Speaking about long-term commitments to Ukraine seemed pointless to U.S. officials who were unable to rally support for the current conflict.
On Thursday, Biden will join the ranks of 15 other nations, including Germany, Italy, France, and Britain, that have bilateral agreements with Ukraine inked. 16 other nations have pledged to someday sign such accords. While not all of the countries that have signed agreements with Kyiv are members of NATO, officials anticipate that the states will coordinate how they carry out their support promises, possibly beginning at a summit of leaders in that organization in Washington next month.
Speaking like others on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive details of the agreement before they have been made public, an administration official stated that, contrary to NATO’s all-for-one, one-for-all promises of mutual defense, the pact does not commit Washington to provide troops to defend Ukraine if it is attacked. Additionally, Washington’s commitment to providing Ukraine with help is devoid of a cash amount.
However, if Ukraine is attacked again in the future, the United States agrees to undertake high-level meetings with Kyiv within 24 hours, and the president of the United States will collaborate with Congress to put the security accords into effect, the official stated.
Additionally, the US will share more intelligence with Ukraine than it does now, strengthen its collaboration in the defense industry, and keep training the country’s armed forces. Additionally, according to those acquainted with the deal, it will work to strengthen Ukraine’s long-term deterrent capability in a variety of sectors, like as the air, sea, and cyberspace.
The goal is to shift the planning cycle from focusing just on fighting the present conflict to considering defense and deterrence from a much wider perspective, according to Eric Ciaramella, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former official in the White House.
He declared, “This is not the end of the story.” “Over time, there will be ways to strengthen these agreements, including through coordination with allies.”
