Although fall has only just begun, it is not too early to consider the approaching winter, which may be substantially different from previous winters owing to El Nio.
For the first time in a few years, the phenomena will have a substantial impact on the coldest months of the year this winter.
El Nio is one of three phases of the El Nio Southern Oscillation, which monitors the equatorial Pacific Ocean for temperature swings that can have far-reaching effects on global climate patterns. El Nio is defined by a prolonged period of higher-than-average ocean temperatures.
El Nio began in June, will be strong this winter, and will last at least through early spring of next year, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
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During the preceding three winters, La Nia, El Nio’s colder counterpart, had a considerable influence on weather patterns across the United States, keeping the South dry while providing much-needed snow to the West.
Early winter projections from the Climate Prediction Center show many of the features of typical El Nio winters, indicating forthcoming changes.
What will the weather be like this winter?
Although there is no such thing as a typical El Nio winter, there are some similarities in temperature and precipitation.
During the winter of an El Nio year, the jet stream frequently flows southward, which is a contributing factor. This transition, according to NOAA, frequently results in wetter and cooler weather in the South and drier and warmer weather in the North.
Storms can move across the South with more frequency during an El Nio winter because the jet stream acts like a river of air through which they flow. Heavy downpours are frequently associated with increased storm activity from the southern Plains to the Southeast. This might be very beneficial in drought-stricken areas such as Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
As temperatures decrease and rainfall rates rise, freezing rain, sleet, and snow may become more regular in the South.
El Nio causes warmer winters in the Pacific Northwest, Rockies, Plains, and Midwest. Extreme cold or heavy snowfall can still happen in isolated regions, but they happen less frequently overall.
The Pacific Northwest’s snowpack is an important supply of water for the region, so this would be terrible news for those places, as well as sections of the Midwest that are facing extreme and exceptional drought.
Because of El Nio, winter weather patterns in California, the Southwest, and the Northeast are less predictable.
El Nio’s overall strength may influence the frequency of storms and increase in precipitation across California and areas of the Southwest. A weak El Nio might leave the Southwest dry, whilst a strong one could bring heavy storms, low-level rain, and high-altitude snow.
The Northeast has no clear expectations during an El Nio winter. The region, like others in the north, can have milder average temperatures, but it is also prone to violent coastal storms that travel up the Atlantic coast.
Previous El Nio winters offer another important perspective through which to assess the next season:
- The 2018-19 winter season was distinguished by a series of big storms, including a December system that dropped snow and ice from Texas to the Carolinas, despite a weak El Nio. According to NOAA, this winter was the wettest on record for the continental United States, with temperatures in much of the East being above average.
- The winter of 2015-2016 was the warmest on record for the continental United States, according to NOAA. This was mostly owing to the impacts of El Nio. Despite the mild winter, massive snowstorms, including a disastrous blizzard that shut down East Coast travel, occurred.
- The last time an El Nio as powerful as this one was forecast was during the winter of 2009-2010. According to NOAA data, the East Coast had considerable precipitation and snowfall, while the South and Central United States suffered exceptionally cold temperatures. That season, the Northeast was pummeled by a series of severe blizzards.
